Will Food Prices Go Down? Essential Guide [2022]

Will food prices go down in 2022?

No, food prices are not looking like they will be going down anytime soon. Sadly, because demand vs supply and the economies of the world are still recovering from the effects of Covid-19, it has caused a massive backlog in the normal production of food.

Consumers in the UK are currently experiencing the quickest food price increase in over 8 years, according to The Guardian. The USA is seeing the quickest food price increase in over 40 years, says USDA.

The world economy has not been able to get back on its feet since the Global Pandemic began. So many people were laid off or out of work when the quarantine started. Now it appears that these same people do not want to return to work.

The Global Pandemic is not over, by any means, however, businesses are open and trying to get back to doing what they do best.

The war happening in Ukraine is about to affect an important time of year – the planting of crops in Ukraine. That will obviously have an impact on the fall harvest also, so a lot of analysts are predicting further supply chain problems in winter 2022 which could push prices up even higher.

Global PMI
Global PMI of food producer costs and selling prices.

As you can see from the chart above how much of an effect Covid-19 has had on the global food production and selling price. However, you can see an even bigger effect of the Ukraine vs Russia war since February 2022.

What Food Prices Are Rising The Most?

These foods have jumped up in price at the following rates in the last year:

  • Flour and prepared flour mixes: 14.2%
  • Butter and margarine: 14%
  • Meat, poultry, and fish: 13.8%
  • Milk: 13.3%
  • Eggs: 11.2%
  • Fresh fruits: 10.1%
  • Bread: 7.1%
  • Fresh vegetables: 5.9%

Why War In Ukraine Is Increasing Food Prices

Ukraine is covered in black earth, a nutrient-rich soil that makes the land one of the most fertile in the world, so it’s no surprise why Ukraine is called the breadbasket of Europe because it is the biggest economy for exporting wheat and is the world’s largest producer of sunflower seeds. They produce so many sunflower seeds that they’d cover all of Slovenia if you uprooted and planted them there.

They are also one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of corn, wheat, potato, sugar beet, barley, tomatoes, apples, pumpkins, carrots, cucumbers, cabbage, rye, walnuts, buckwheat, dry peas, and honey.

71.2% of their land is used for agricultural production, so it’s easy to understand why they are a powerhouse in producing food for the world. We are paying for that now thanks to the war at the moment.

Inflation and Food Price Increases: 1980s vs 2022

Why was the western world in the 1980s resilient to food price increases during inflation and survived better than in the 2020s? The main reason was the dependency on local market traders and businesses which poured money into local communities and economies. Whereas in 2022 we spend money very differently, we pour money into large companies online faster than we spend with local businesses.

Your parents and grandparents spent money very differently in the early 1980s and would have been far more frugal than the generation experiencing the price inflation of food, fuel, and other daily essentials of 2022.

We have asked different people and showcased what their experience was like and how they survived throughout the early 80s during the greatest period of inflation, stagnation, and low employment.

In 1980 the average family was larger than it is in the 2020s which meant more mouths to feed, rooms to heat, and things to do at weekends.

How Much Have UK Food Prices Risen By in 2022?

The CPI in the UK showed the cost of food and drink has gone up 5.9% year on year as of March 2022. While this is lower than the overall 7% rise recorded on the CPI, increases across many key categories have exceeded this hike.

UK consumers are experiencing the fastest price increase in over eight years! According to market analysts Kantar.

How Much Have USA Food Prices Risen By in 2022?

The CPI in the USA showed it increased by 1.3% from February 2022 to March 2022, up 8.5 percent from March 2021. The CPI for all food increased 1% percent from February 2022 to March 2022, and food prices were 8.8 percent higher than in March 2021.

US consumers are experiencing the fastest price increase in over 40 years. Yes, 40 years!

Should You Start Stockpiling Certain Foods?

A lot of people have already started stockpiling certain foods due to the continuous rise in foods because of inflation. We are currently seeing the fastest increase in food prices on a monthly basis which means the bag of pasta that you buy today, maybe 5%-10% more expensive next month.

You don’t necessarily need to overbuy nor panic – but it is probably wise to stock up on nonperishable foods or dry goods that will last up to one to two years if unopened.

Which Foods Should The Average Family Stockpile

There were already food price increases globally at the start of 2020 when the pandemic started to force most governments to impose lockdowns, but we have seen over the past few weeks price increases and federal governments raise interest rates to tackle the inflation. The food prices have now steadily risen due to the war in Ukraine and that is because Ukraine exports a tremendous amount of food to the world.

Here is a list of different items you should be stockpiling in the case that food prices grow faster, which they are expected to over the next few months.

Wheat

Ukraine and Russia supply up to 35% of the World’s wheat. With the War continuing, the farmers are going to miss the important planting time, which will lead to shortages and higher prices for the wheat they do have.

When the exportation is shut down, this will prevent the shipping of wheat. However, the United States grows and produces enough wheat and corn to supply our own country. It is a conundrum, so to speak.
The cost of wheat and corn is based on global supply. When pricing, is based on supply and demand when it is not available, the demand is higher and therefore the price is higher.

If we follow the trends of stockpiling, wheat products and corn products should be bought in bulk amounts. Keep the product in airtight containers or vacuum-sealed bags, away from bugs and other animals.

Soybeans

Soybeans are used in feeding cattle, adding to other ingredients, and making meats, tofu, and soy sauce among many other products. The war in Ukraine is causing ripple effects across the worldwide market for prices.

The United States does not import many soybeans from Ukraine or Russia, however, the impacts are hitting their stores inadvertently from other products that do use soybeans sourced from Ukraine or Russia.

With the market being restricted from importing and Russia and Ukraine not able to export at the time, supply and demand are taking over. What can a savvy shopper stockpile when it comes to soybeans? Any of the items mentioned above, plus more. This could include meats and canned meats, and a variety of soy-based flours as well as soybeans alone.

There are many who drink soy milk and use soya powder for coffee or tea drinks. Foods that include vegetable protein for texture should also be stockpiled. You may want to consider getting used to switching soya oil for something like coconut oil which will be less adverse to price increases.

Canned Foods

This one should seem like an obvious given. Canned goods may not be the healthiest of options, however, they do contain proteins, Vitamins, and minerals that our bodies need. With the fear of unrest from the war in Ukraine, consumers are starting to stockpile all the canned items that they can.

There are canned meats, vegetables, pasta, fruits, and even canned milk, like evaporated milk.

Other items such as peanut butter, jerky, soups, and beverages should be bought while they are available.

How Long Does Canned Food Last?

Can canned food last 20-100 years? Canned goods actually last forever as long as they’re kept in good condition, according to the USDA. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll still taste that good ten or 40 years from now!

Other Foods You Should Consider Stockpiling

  • Flour (white, wholemeal, self-raising)
  • Rice
  • Noodles
  • Beans
  • Lentils
  • Oats
  • Pasta (different shapes, white & wholewheat)

What Does A 3 Month Supply of Food Look Like?

A three-month supply would require 90 breakfast bags, 90 lunch bags (ideally), and 90 dinner bags. It’s that easy. Gather your favorite quick and simple recipes and make copies of them. One copy for each time you would like to eat that meal.

What is the longest-lasting non-perishable food?

  • Bouillon cubes
  • Peanut butter
  • Dark chocolate
  • Canned or vacuum-pouched tuna
  • Dried beans
  • Honey
  • Liquor
  • White rice

A Roundup of Food Prices Going Down or Up

It may seem to be extreme to some people, however, if you consider the issue of trying to buy toilet tissue when the pandemic began. The prices of foods, all types of foods are increasing daily.

Whether due to the war, delivery issues, or lack of product, it is all supply and demand. The higher the demand is, the higher the price is going to be.

While many of us complained about those who stockpiled when the pandemic began, surely, we must appreciate the fact that they were prepared when many of us were not. Those are the ones we need to take lessons from. The war Russia started with Ukraine should be enough to convince us that we need to prepare.

Years ago, when preppers began stockpiling many of us tried to understand. Now Russia has made it clear what is a possibility. For your family’s sake, canned goods, wheat, and soybean products are all the food items to consider buying every time you are at the marketplace.

Canned goods, dried pasta, beverage mixes, powdered milk, none of these are as good as fresh, but war is not as good as freedom.

If something dire does happen, at least you will know that you prepared and were sure to have water and food for your family.

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